check.markets

check.markets is my first coding project aiming to optimize my trading algorithm in python. My ultimate goal is to introduce automatic trading on a daily basis with it. The purpose of this blog is to document the trading results, learnings and to discuss coding ideas that I struggle with. I would love you to join me on this journey. Your contribution is greatly appreciated. I'm looking forward to great conversations.

Much too late on our watchlist: MAERSK

A.P. Moller-Maersk is connecting and simplifying the world’s supply chains, and aspires to provide truly integrated logistics. Across oceans, ports, on land and in the air, they are combining their supply chain infrastructure with the power of their people and technology to drive end-to-end innovation that accelerates their customers’ success. By delivering innovative logistics solutions the company believes they can give the companies they serve a significant edge and help them realise their f...
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47,8% discount for Fabasoft - worth a buy?

Imagine a small company owning strong brands losing nearly 50% of its value due to EPS decreases that it has announced recently. Imagine this being Fabasoft, one of the best reputed companies in the digitalization field in Austria. Should we make use of this strong decline?With an innovative portfolio of products and services, Fabasoft contributes to simplifying, accelerating and improving the quality of document and process management in all business areas. Data protection and data security alw...
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Frequentis - a guardian angel?

After an IR call with the Head of IR at #Frequentis, Mr. Marin, I am convinced that I have discovered a great long-term runner in Austria. The Viennese company is excellently positioned to offer attractive prospects for long-term investors. This is already underlined by a successful past. What convinces us about Frequentis?- Sales increases. Based on the last few years, the company underlined its market leadership with an attractive sales development (2016: 240 EURm, 2021: 330 EURm), which was h...
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#IRTalk with Frequentis (AT)

Since not living far from the company's headquarters, regularly playing tennis across the street from it and having had this company on my watch list for quite a while, I wanted to take a closer look at Frequentis and its business model. It's a great honour, that Stefan Marin, the Head of Investor Relations at Frequentis took his valuable time to talk to me about important questions that arose after having analyzed the half-year report of 2021 and the annual report of 2020.Regarding sales develo...
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Curse or Blessing?

check.markets delivered the first buying signal in this year after headwinds and signals that market participants start to become fearful again through the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The algorithm has also taken note of the recent trends in sectors ranking the Basic Materials sector first.It was hard to believe. Usually, chart technicians say that if the markets gain in the morning and sell in the evening, this shows a clear sell signal. Although this was the case yesterday, our global check.mark...
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A special day for our Wikifolio!

While several other bigger country indices were suffering heavy losses during the start of the year, we were lucky: We could see our Wikifolio breaking even yesterday!Here you can see the comparison between TecDAX, the German Tech index, and our Wikifolio named Wonderfolio:What challenged us at the beginning of the year was our leveraged LONG ETF on NASDAQ 100. It fell so strongly that our whole performance was diminished. With the help of incredible investments like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), ...
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HPQ - my new favorite?

#HP (HPQ) is one of the biggest surprises in my watch list that I have ever found through my trading algorithm. The reason is that I was surprised at how cheaply the stock is valued, even though it recently hit an all-time high. Below we want to discuss together why this is the case and what is behind HP.In terms of valuation, we have found a supposedly favorably-valued stock:P/S = 0.6P/E = 5.8P/OCF = 5.3P/FCF = 6.0All valuation ratios are single digits which means: if you manage to keep the cur...
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Meta - a pure cashflow machine

The general situation around Meta should be known; the company is struggling with a decline in users (decrease in daily active users (DAU), to be specific) and increasing regulatory and technical hurdles in order to continue to operate its business model in the old prosperity in the spirit of: data meant money.After the announcement that it would also withdraw from Europe, the company was to be deprived of its business basis, and Apple's announcement that it would let users determine whether Fac...
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You won't believe it! (BABA)

Alibaba (BABA) is currently in a tough situation. Not only do they face regulatory risk from the Security Exchange Commission (SEC) in America, they also envisage lower customer demand in their local market. These two factors combined with huge political pressure by the Chinese government caused the stock to lose more than 2/3 of its total market cap. This is why I took a close look at the most recent quarterly report from 31 December 2021 to find out more about the current situation of Alibaba....
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How to find 100 baggers (stocks that make $100 from $1 invested)

In his book "100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them" (2014),  Christopher Mayer analyzes the basic components that stocks had to become 100 baggers. The author tries to give us basic guidelines which to respect when you want to find stocks as such. 100 baggers are stocks that turn $1 invested into $100. With this post we try to summarize the author's findings and show you how much the check.markets strategy has in common with it. Let's list the components that Mr Mayer fi...
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Watchlist entry 3: 1&1 Drillisch (1U1.F)

As noted in my last purchase post of United Internet, #1&1Drillisch is also at the top of the watch list. After my conversation with Oliver Keiler (Head of IR, 1&1 Drillisch), I mentioned in my blog that the reason for the low rating of 1&1 is primarily the lack of transparency in the market guidance. Two other reasons that we currently see as reasons arethe (current) low growth in sales and earnings andthe high capital expenditures for the construction of the 5G network, which are t...
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Watchlist entry 2: Intel Corp. (INTC)

Another highly attractive value, which unfortunately will not show much growth in the short, medium or long term, is #Intel.Intel finds itself strategically in a crucial situation. If Intel manages to regain market leadership from behind the scenes, the current market valuation would probably lead to a run on the stock. Unfortunately, the short and medium-term situation is that Intel and its products can hardly keep up with the competition.On the other hand, a spin-off of a former acquisition ta...
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Watchlist entry 1: Paypal (PYPL)

The payment provider #Paypal is now also on our watch list. A purchase could also be made here during the day.The company has been growing steadily for years, but has disappointed Wall Street with its recently released FY2022 guidance, although it would put revenue growth at around 14% and net income growth at a strong 31%.In terms of valuation, Paypal remains relatively highly valued, although it has already lost around 2/3 of its market value. An example list of some rating indicators below:KU...
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Next buy in our Wikifolio: UTDI

The current valuation of United Internet and its subsidiary 1&1 Drillisch is currently so attractive that I almost feel compelled to make this purchase.United Internet plans to list its cloud infrastructure subsidiary Ionos on the stock market. It is said to be a hyperscaler that will later have to compete with Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud as well as Microsoft OneDrive. In view of the EU plans to savvy European cloud providers, Ionos is creating an interesting offer here, which shoul...
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#IRTalk with 1&1 (GER)

Today, I've had another phone call with the Head of Investor Relations at 1&1 Oliver Keil. I've gotten to know a very experienced and focused man that seemed to know the company and the current situation of it very precisely. This has probably been the most professional Head of IR that I've talked to so far. He spoke his words clearly and emotionless. No room for bullshit or exaggeration. Unfortunately, the (legal) requirements behind his role challenged me to get the insights I wished for i...
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Commodity price increases are no reason for interest hikes!

Today, Jerome Powell, Federal Governor of the US Federal Reserve Bank, published a statement saying that the Fed needs to increase its interest rate by 25 basis points in March and further interest hikes are regarded necessary, too. There are two things that Mr. Powell doesn't regard here.Commodity prices seem to climb to further highs every dayMr. Powell is in an unlucky position. Although inflation skyrockets, the Fed hasn't yet increased its interest rates. During summertime, the Governor was...
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On the road to new ATH? I say yes!

It seems to me that over the course of the next 21 days we will see a break back to "old" price levels. We experience investors with high cash piles who are willing to buy and who are just waiting for a little sweety to finally be able to invest again. To me, the situation seems as if the US is pushing the war further and further into the background, since President Biden (finally) made it clear that the US would not take part in the war.Is there any risk?The last two scenarios that could still ...
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How long-term is this tough situation of stock markets?

During the last weeks we've become part of a challenging and uncomfortable market situation. In theory at least if we listened to our check.markets indicator. It has proven to strongly protect us from such conditions. Since 21 January check.markets is in the sell direction. But it's not quite clear how durable this phase is and what could be done in order to come out of it. I'll try to present my view of current conditions.What are the threats that lead to this situation?For me, there are two ma...
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Our VIX long certificate justifies our investment

What a crazy January on the stock market! It's simply incredible! Would you have considered the Nasdaq 100 dropping so strongly within a month without any early warning signal? We definitely didn't. Times like these aren't easy for the psychology of investors. But especially in these times the great investors and the best strategies can make the ultimate deal. Do we belong to this list? Time will tell.As mentioned in our previous post, the current market movements are very interesting to study. ...
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Finally: check.markets shows sell signal

It can't be described in a better phrase: Finally, the check.markets index delivers a selling signal. As I mentioned yesterday, market movements are unusual these days. No panic, no huge sell-off. Just regular (late) market turns from green to red.What can we do?check.markets has a clear answer: Selling the positions one is in and buying VIX ETF products. This is what we are going to do tonight. This move doesn't guarantee us any profits. It could also cause us further losses. But in our system,...
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You immediately pay the price for wrong judgement

What a challenging (it took me minutes to find a 'good' word as an adjective) year start! We were so optimistic about the new portfolio strategy that had shaped a phenomenal year-end 2021 and has been beaten damn hard by a rather (sudden) surprising strong sell-off (enough of descriptive adjectives right now!). The reason? We have followed check.markets. A ride on the rollercoaster this year so far.Will this be one of the buy signals resulting in a wrong judgment of our check.markets market indi...
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It's all about the Fed currently

Throughout recent days, there has been a heavy sell-off of beneficiaries of the Corona crisis as well as tech stocks. Wall Street connaisseurs conclude that there is a shift from tech and growth stocks to "value" stocks. Almost forgotten stocks like British American Tobacco, Dow and BASF have gained in these times. Can the Fed's interest hike be the main reason for this? We'll try to investigate this issue.Our Wikifolio was rather strongly hit by this shift. 30% of its portfolio value are invest...
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Learnings from: Jesse Livermore (I)

retrieved from the book:Lefèvre, E. (2019). Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (English Edition) (the figures stated between the brackets are the page numbers I retrieved the quotes from)Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. (2)I was playing a system and not a favorite stock or backing opinions. (4)I kept my business to myself. It was a one-man business. (5)What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game (12)There is the Wall Stree...
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Performance 2021: + 33.9 %

What a fantastic year! What we hoped for in our last post became true: We close an intense year 2021 with the Wikifolio performance of 33.9 %. This is by far the highest annual performance that we have ever had. And this is the net performance after all fees (performance fees of 5% and certificate fee of 0.95 % p. a. were deducted). Let's have a look back on this year and try to learn as much as possible from mistakes that we've made.Our wikifolio's performanceBeing naturally happy and proud abo...
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30% performance in 2021! Will check.markets' Wikifolio really manage it?

We couldn't be more excited! Currently, our wikifolio that has taken check.markets' buying and selling signals into consideration since 7 May, 2021, is currently trading 30% ahead of last year's closing price. This means that you could make EUR 3,000 out of EUR 10,000.This year gave us a unique chance to outperform any recent annual performancesThe strengthening US Dollar (which lead to higher market prices in EUR as the value of the EUR has decreased) as well as the huge effort of the central b...
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What to do about sharp declines? Invest like check.markets

It hasn't been long ago when we saw the first hopes arising among investors that the market would build a clear upward trend again. check.markets' algorithm saw this tendency, too, and also created a (weak) buy signal. One knew you had to be cautious about the next few days as many news could instantly crash all plans that had been made before. And unfortunately the market found reasons to sell off. check.markets fled at the right point of time.The probably best weeks we've had on the American s...
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Scoring matrix reflection

Today, I would like to reflect on the factors used to determine the quality of stocks that have reached their ATH. The background behind this reflection is that I fear that the influence of my most important factors becomes diluted in the vast number of factors that I include in the Scoring matrix.  Currently, the Scoring Matrix is based on the following factors:MarginsEarnings before tax (EBT) marginNet income marginOCF marginFFO marginFCF marginGrowthRevenue growth in 1 yr and in 3yrsNet incom...
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check.markets-Trades (07.05.-10.12.)

As check.markets has been online since 7 May, it is time to check the performance table of this trading system. It is important to note that after v1 caused two loss trades there was a long break until the end of September in which no trades were executed.check.markets v1 (7 May '21- 16 July '21)StockPurchPriceSellPriceChg%Siemens AG145,09131,08-9,6%BMW St AG94,2285,00-9,8%check.markets v2/v3 (1 Sept '21 - 10 Dec '21)stockNamePurchPriceSellPriceChg%Nasdaq 100 3x Daily Lev179,19222,18+24,0%Arista...
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#IRTalk with Mayr-Melnhof (AT)

There is one Austrian stock that seems to be especially attractive as a long-term investment -  and this is Mayr-Melnhof (MM). The reason being is that the business field of packaging of several products is not only a business field of change due to more customer and political awareness but also a field of reliable and stable development. MM is the European market leader in this area. With the opportunity of recycling, Mayr-Melnhof qualifies to belong to every ESG portfolios. This circumstance a...
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check.markets v4 takes the project to the next level

After having watched a really great video of Algovibes, I gained a sudden motivation to quality review my code updated per November 1, 2021. With new infrastructural equipment, I would have the chance to deploy my code on a NAS server to run it 24/7. What I could improve throughout the last two days and what I struggled with, I would like to share with you in this blog entry.On November 1, I had the impression that check.markets v3 could be one of the highest level improvements that I could impl...
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