The Trust Cycle: Ibn Khaldun's Framework for Why Prosperity Changes In the fourteenth century, a North African scholar named Ibn Khaldun watched empires rise, peak, and rot from the inside. He noticed the same arc repeating -- different names, different religions, different locations, but the same pattern. What he wrote down in the Muqaddimah may be the most accurate description of economic and political cycles ever produced. Seven centuries later, the pattern hasn't changed. The systems have j...

The Mathematics of Patience: Why One Limit Order Beats Two Most brokerages allow limit orders with a six-month expiration. That creates a clean decision problem: given 130 trading days to buy a stock, what price should the limit be set at? Set it too low and the order never fills. Set it too high and you leave money on the table. The optimal answer turns out to have a closed form, and the implications are surprisingly strong. The Beauty Problem The framework borrows from the classical secreta...

Analyze [TICKER] using the Master Diagnostic Engine framework below. I am a long-term, moat-first equity investor. Do not make portfolio recommendations or suggest position sizing unless I explicitly ask. FRAMEWORK REFERENCE Visual glossary (apply throughout): Fragile = concave payoff to stressors (accelerating downside) Robust = flat payoff regardless of stressor Antifragile = convex payoff (benefits from disorder) Embedded expectations = the implied growth rate or earnings trajectory ...

Introduction: The Legend of Graham-and-Doddsville In 1984, the lecture halls of Columbia Business School served as the battlefield for a foundational clash in financial philosophy. The occasion was the 50th anniversary of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd’s seminal text, Security Analysis, and the debate pitted Michael Jensen, a titan of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, against his most formidable living refutation: Warren Buffett. Jensen famously suggested that Buffett’s record might be nothing m...

The energy transition gets reported as a political story — coal country versus climate activists, red states versus blue states, Washington subsidies versus market forces. But underneath the noise, something quieter and more powerful is happening. Two economic principles, discovered nearly a century apart, are methodically settling the question. Politics is just the spectacle running alongside. Photo by Robert Lukeman on Unsplash Wright's Law: The More You Make, the Cheaper It Gets I...

Current Market Snapshot (February 27, 2026) FCX: $68.38 (near 52-week high of $69.75, up ~77% YoY) Copper: ~$6.05/lb (up ~27% YoY) Copper supply deficit: ~330 kmt projected for 2026 (JP Morgan) Supply disruptions: Grasberg mudslide (force majeure), Chile production downgrades Demand drivers: Energy transition, data center expansion, China restocking Part 1: Core Variables The economy moves along two independent axes at all times: Δg = change in real GDP growth (rising or falling) Δπ = c...

Decision-Maker's Field Guide: A Structured Approach to Critical Thinking The Field Guide to Critical Thinking & Decision Making presents a systematic framework for overcoming cognitive biases, culminating in a practical five-step decision protocol designed for rapid deployment in high-stakes situations. The Decision-Making Protocol At the core of the field guide is a streamlined checklist that transforms abstract bias awareness into actionable steps. This protocol represents distilled wis...

Capital Account A Money Manager's Reports on a Turbulent Decade 1993-2002 ...

Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman ...

Market Outlook 2026: Navigating Persistent Inflation The base case remains "no landing"—persistent above-target inflation around 2.3% driven by fiscal expansion offsetting AI productivity gains. This regime increases equity-bond correlation, eroding traditional 60/40 diversification. Portfolio implications: Favor international small-cap value over US large-cap growth. Within fixed income, TIPS and international bonds offer better inflation protection than long-duration nominals. Real assets an...

Tiered breakdown for The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham: Most Important Chapter 8: The Investor and Market Fluctuations - Core concept of Mr. Market and psychological discipline Chapter 20: “Margin of Safety” as the Central Concept - Graham’s fundamental investment principle Chapter 1: Investment versus Speculation - Essential framework for your approach Introduction and Commentary by Zweig - Contextualizes Graham for modern markets Consider Chapter 4: General Portfolio Policy: The ...