10.0 - Is climate change an existential threat? There is a lot of fear-mongering worst case scenarios out there. They may even be right. I have spent perhaps too much time reading doomsayers on reddit on this particular topic, so I may have a distorted view. I'm interested in correcting the record, at least with myself.
I am looking forward to reading The Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace Wells, which explores the darker end of the possibility spectrum here. But he doesn't seem like a crank or someone who doesn't know what he's talking about, who respects the scientific consensus. We shall see.
There are scientists who have pushed back against the existential threat assessment, but DWW argues that most of the analysis that has been done in the scientific community has focused on the effects of 1.5-2.0C warming, and keeping warming below 2C, which he argues we are not going to do, so we need to start focusing on outcomes of 4C+ warming as a very realistic possibility, at which point the more dire scenarios start to come into the picture. I suppose it's less a matter of how bad 4C is, than how likely are we going to have 4C? Perhaps? I'm still figuring out the geography of this particular debate, but it's a fun (in a perverse way I realize) and terrifying one. I hope that I'm wrong, that it's less than an existential threat, and just something awful. I suppose that's the best we can hope for at this point.