I think that Trump will win in November. He won't win democratically: he will win by openly subverting democracy. He is already doing this by refusing funds to the USPS with the explicit aim of preventing people voting by post1. Together with his successful campaign to downplay the dangers of CV19 to his supporters, this means that, while most Trump supporters will vote in person, Biden's supporters will be far less likely to do that, and thus fewer of their votes will count. This strategy will, of course, cause more of his supporters to die, but his supporters are now entirely expendable to him: this is the last time he will need them as it will be the last pretence at a democratic election if he wins.
How can he get away with this? He can do so because so many people are now in a position where they are so compromised by their actions in his support that they know, without any doubt, that their future depends on him winning: if he loses, they go to gaol or worse. These are people who had few morals in the first place2, and who are selfish to the point of psychopathy: they will do anything to stay out of gaol, and their only hope of doing so is for Trump to win.
For instance consider the Postmaster-General, Louis DeJoy: he is very clearly working, on Trump's behalf, to directly subvert democracy in the US. This, in fact, is treason. If Trump loses then he's going to gaol for a very long time. So, since he cares about himself above anything – and certainly far above his country – he will do anything in his power to ensure Trump wins. And a great deal is in his power.
He is just one example: almost all Republican politicians are compromised in similar ways, along with many hundreds of other powerful people. It has been obvious for a long time that Trump, personally, needs to win as if he loses he and many of his family will end up either in gaol or in exile, but this is a tiny fraction of the problem: so many people, with so much power, have committed so many criminal acts on Trump's behalf and, if he loses, the consequences for them are terrible. None of these people can afford to allow Trump to lose, even at the cost of the end of last pretence of democracy in the US3. So he will win.
I hope this argument is wrong, but I fear it is not.
Trump votes by post. ↩
That's how they got themselves into the mess in which they now find themselves. ↩
And even at the cost of huge economic damage to the US: these are not, again, people who care more about their country, or about anything more than themselves, and they will happily take even substantial personal financial hits if the alternative is gaol, or worse. ↩