The near future

America has taken over Venezuela for its oil. China will get the hint and invade Taiwan.

There are now four choices:

(1) America lets them do it and there is no significant fighting. China now has control of a huge proportion of the world's semiconductor manufacturing and has America over a barrel. China has won, America will slowly fade further into irrelevence.

(2) America lets them do it but there is significant fighting. Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing capacity is seriously damaged. There is enormous economic damage: the AI bubble deflating abruptly is just the start. China has won and Americans are going hungry.

(3) America intervenes, and after some years loses the war. Results are as (2) but significantly worse: think the Vietnam war combined with a catastrophic recession. America experiences large-scale political violence. China has won, America probably no longer exists as a single country.

(4) America intervenes, is losing the war, uses nuclear weapons. Death of a few billion people. Nobody has won, because almost everybody is dead.

Elect an incompetent senile fascist, get what you should have expected to get.

I hope I am wrong.