What makes a great country?

A

If Migrant Workers Vanished, What Would the City Become?

This place wakes up early. Hawkers fire their stoves before sunrise, malls polish their corridors till they shine, construction sites hum before the traffic starts. If one morning the entire food, cleaning and construction workforce woke up without a single migrant worker in sight, the surface scenery might look the same. The engine underneath would not.

1. How big is the missing piece

The numbers alone tell the story. By mid 2025 there were close to 1.9 million foreign workers supporting a population of about 6.1 million, concentrated in construction, marine and domestic work. In construction the contrast is stark. Roughly ninety thousand locals stand beside more than four hundred thousand migrant workers. It means most helmets you see at a worksite do not belong to local citizens.

Food and cleaning jobs sit in the same ecosystem. The restaurant sector is allowed to hire up to thirty-five percent of its staff from abroad. Cleaning companies also depend heavily on migrant workers to keep daily operations smooth.

Once you remove these three pillars the entire roof becomes shaky.

2. Food and beverage: what happens to your next meal

Right away

Restaurants, coffee shops and fast food outlets would have to close part of the day or close entirely. Dishwashing, preparation, clearing tables and basic service are already difficult to staff locally. A shop might claim only a third of its staff are foreigners, but in the working positions half the hands might be migrant hands.

Those that manage to stay open would operate like ration kitchens. Menus shrink to the few items that can be cooked in bulk. Light stews, curries and set meals survive. Anything that requires layers of preparation or delicate wok work disappears. Service becomes slow, tables wait longer to be cleared, and self-service quietly becomes the norm.

If you walk around a food court the crowd suddenly becomes far more local, and the mood far less patient.

After a few months

Prices rise. Local labour costs more, and restaurant margins are thin. You either raise prices or shut the shop. The bowl of noodles you take for granted jumps from five to eight dollars. Your regular coffee goes up a couple of dollars without apology.

Automation rolls in whether anyone likes it or not. Scan-to-order becomes universal. Self-return stations become standard. Chains consolidate into central kitchens to squeeze every drop of efficiency.

And the food landscape flattens. The first to vanish are the small stalls built around a single owner’s skill. Innovation shrinks. Everyone plays safe with dishes that survive high labour costs and predictable volume.

The city still feeds you, but it feeds you in fewer ways, at higher prices, and with less soul.

3. Cleaning: the invisible work shows its true cost

The first week

Public toilets become the first warning sign. Cleaning cycles turn into probability. Malls can paste reminders, but they cannot mop the floor. Bins overflow. Refuse rooms clog up. Rodents and insects arrive to deliver the message that someone is missing.

The gleam of public spaces softens. Train-station floors lose their mirror finish, parks show more leaf litter and mud. Visitors might overlook it, but residents will feel the difference instantly.

The new normal

Cleaning companies must raise wages far above the current entry level just to attract locals. Cleaning frequency drops. Three moppings a day become one. People slowly accept a different standard of “clean enough”.

Technology steps in, but at a cost. Scrubber robots in malls, sealed refuse systems in housing estates and automated compactors everywhere else. All of it eventually ends up reflected in rent and management fees.

Cleanliness was like air. You knew it was there, but you never saw the invoice. Without migrant workers the bill sits plainly on the table.

4. Construction: the city hits pause

This is where the shock is the loudest. Every public-housing block under construction, every mall renovation, every stretch of rail line or airport expansion would be delayed or halted. Big projects rely on sheer manpower for scaffolding, steelwork, concreting and interior finishing.

With only ninety-odd thousand locals in the trade there is no way to replace hundreds of thousands overnight.

Housing supply tightens. Delayed completion means young families stay longer in rentals, which pushes rents up. Interior-design firms, furniture companies and property-management services feel the slowdown.

Long term, salaries in construction have to rise to white-collar levels to draw locals back into the field. The sector shrinks in volume and becomes more selective. Public projects are prioritised. Ambitions for new lines, connectors and underground links stretch into a decade rather than a few years.

The skyline you see today stays frozen for a long while.

5. How everyday life changes

Costs rise across the board. Rent, maintenance fees, meals outside the home. The comfort built on inexpensive labour evaporates.

Locals rethink what counts as acceptable work. Some return to kitchens, cleaning teams or construction sites. With higher pay the resistance softens, but it takes time.

The city becomes quieter. With fewer transient workers the population slides below the current six-million mark. Transport feels less crowded, yet the streets feel less cosmopolitan.

The entire place folds inward, becoming more self-contained and slightly slower.

6. Why “zero migrant workers” was never a realistic option

The path taken over the decades was shaped by necessity. With limited land and a small population the fastest way to grow was to bring in people to do the work. As citizens advanced into office jobs, healthcare, education and services, the gaps in heavy labour widened. Construction, cleaning and care work cannot run on ambition alone. Someone still has to lift the steel bars and scrub the corridors.

Policy therefore focuses on ratios and standards rather than elimination. Caps for F&B, higher base wages for cleaning, training for locals in construction. All attempts at balance rather than severance.

7. The quiet truth underneath

Without migrant workers you would still have a city, but not the version you recognise. Food becomes simpler and pricier. Cleanliness becomes something you pay for consciously. Housing becomes slower to build and harder to secure.

And the people who used to walk among you become visible only through their absence.

外勞不見了，城市會怎樣？

如果有一天，一覺醒來，飲食業、清潔業、建築業裡，一個外勞都沒有了，這座城市會怎樣，可以用四個字說完：整個卡死。下面重新梳理。

1 先看底數：少了多少人

截至 2025 年年中，外籍勞工約 191 萬人，把人口推到 611 萬。建築、海事、家務是主力。

2024 年外籍勞工總數約 159 萬，其中 CMP 行業占大頭。

建築業裡，本地人大約 9 萬，外籍工人約 41.5 萬，接近一比四。

你看到的工地，大部分安全帽下面，都不是本地護照。

飲食與清潔業同樣依賴外籍人力。餐飲可用外勞占員工的 35%。清潔則更是靠移工撐著。

這題的假設，就是把三條柱子拔掉，看屋頂會不會塌。

2 飲食業：你還吃不吃得到飯

2.1 如果外勞一天內消失

大量餐館、咖啡店、連鎖快餐會關門或縮短時間。後廚、洗碗、收桌本來就請不到足夠本地人。很多店名義上外勞三成，實際操作崗位可能一半以上都是外籍員工。

能開門的店也只能像戰時配給。菜單先縮一半，麻煩的小炒先砍掉，只留下能大量生產的料理，例如咖喱、燉湯、一鍋到底。

服務品質下滑。排隊變長，桌面久沒人收。自助取餐、自己收盤變成常態。

你走一圈美食廣場，原來十個人裡三四個是外籍員工，一下子全變成本地人，表情不會太愉快。

2.2 半年後的情況

第一是漲價。人工成本暴升，餐飲利潤太薄，不關店就加價。一碗麵可能從五元跳到八元，咖啡多兩三元很正常。

第二是強行自動化。掃碼點餐、自助取食、自助洗盤變普遍。中央廚房成主流，靠規模換效率。

第三是飲食文化被壓平。講究手藝的小檔最先撐不住。創新菜式減少，大家走安全菜單，不敢冒險。

你還吃得到飯，可是更貴、更單調，巷口那碗熟悉的味道會慢慢消失。

3 清潔業：乾淨原來這麼貴

3.1 第一個禮拜

公廁最先失守。清潔變成看運氣，廁紙補不上，地板沒人拖。

垃圾開始堆，樓下垃圾房很快飽和。老鼠蟑螂會提醒大家「有人不見了」。

街面的亮度下降。地鐵站不再鏡面，公園多落葉與泥點。遊客可能不在意，住民會立刻覺得不一樣。

3.2 之後的調整

清潔公司必須拉高薪資到更高層級，才有本地人願意入行。

清潔頻率下降，每天三次變一天一次。大家慢慢習慣「不那麼亮」。

清潔科技普及，洗地機器人、垃圾壓縮設備、封閉式垃圾系統全面上場，管理費和租金自然上調。

乾淨原來像空氣，有它習慣了，不曾算過成本。少了外勞，帳單才真正亮出來。

4 建築業：整座城市按下暫停鍵

4.1 立即後果

組屋、商場、地鐵段落、機場擴建全部延後甚至停工。大型建築靠大量外籍工人鋼筋灌漿、搭棚、室內裝修。本地九萬多人根本填不上四十多萬的缺口。

房價與租金往上，因為供應延後。年輕家庭租屋期拉長，市場因此更緊。

相關行業串連受影響，室內設計、家電、傢俱、工程材料全縮單。

4.2 中長期調整

建築業薪資大幅提高，逼近白領水平才可能吸引本地人。

建築量縮減，公共工程優先，非必要項目延後。開發商更保守，怕找不到人施工。

城市風貌被定格，新的地鐵線、天橋、地下通道從三五年拉到十年。

這地方之所以總給人「一直在蓋東西」的感覺，就是因為幾十萬人在烈日底下綁鋼筋。沒有他們，節奏只能慢。

5 本地人的生活方式會被逼著改

生活成本全面上升。房租、管理費、外食都走高。

本地人對「不做這種工」的態度被挑戰。薪資提高後會有人願意做，但過渡期不舒服。

人口規模下滑，交通不那麼擠，街景卻少了多語言的熱鬧。

整座城市會收縮成更本地、更自給自足的樣子，節奏放慢，野心稍收。

6 為什麼不可能「完全不要外勞」

因為經濟需要速度。土地有限、人口有限，要成長就得引人來做事。

本地人轉到白領與專業領域後，重體力的空位必須有人填。

建築、清潔、照護這些行業沒有外勞就動不了。玻璃森林的每層灰、每根鋼筋，都是他們的手印。

所以政策選擇「控制比例、提高標準」，而不是「全部取消」。

7 最後的結論

少了外勞，你吃得更貴、吃得更單調。

清潔要花更多錢，也要自己動手。

房子蓋得慢，租金更高。

城市變得更本地，也更封閉。

最重要的是，這裡每天與你擦肩而過的那群人，平時像透明。等他們不在了，整座城市才發現自己原來靠他們走路。