Platform Switch Decision Formulas

Over the weekend I was reading Annie's blog, "Talk about the thing itself - God help me, fediverse, we have got to stop being so pedantic". In her post Annie discusses how to better introduce and promote the Fediverse (decentralised social media platforms) to new users. Annie includes a formula to explain why people resist change - where the rewards and pain relief of switching must outweigh both the costs of changing and the existing value they get from current platforms.

The pain you’re escaping (PAIN) has to exceed the cost of taking action (C0ST). If COST > PAIN, no action.

And/or the reward you’re expecting (REWARD) has to exceed the cost of taking action (COST). If COST > REWARD, no action.

There’s also the value they’re still receiving (VALUE) factor. If VALUE (of staying) > REWARD (of changing), no action.

Or some combo, right: If VALUE - PAIN > REWARD - COST, no action. I’m sure that’s not the correct way to write it out, sorry, you get it

Given that being pedantic was a theme I took the unintended bait. I replied on Mastodon with unsolicited help to format this as a proper mathematical formula:

The intention was humour. Irony / satire. I was called out by one person for 'mansplaining'. An amicable exchange followed. A shared understanding was reached. During our exchange, I adapted Annie's formula to extract more 'humour' from the discourse, and the original premise about platform switching reluctance.

Platform Switch Decision Formula

Key variables for platform switching:

• S = Social capital (friends, connections, content)
• P = Privacy benefit
• L = Learning curve cost
• C = Convenience loss
• F = Functionality difference

Basic Conditions Preventing Switch

1. S > P (Social value exceeds privacy gains)
2. L + C > P (Transition costs exceed benefits)
3. F < 0 (Loss of functionality)

Combined Decision Formula

Let M = Decision to migrate platforms
where M = 1 means "switch platforms" and M = 0 means "stay"

Taken as a heuristic tool the new formula further attempts to explain why many people don't switch from Facebook or Google despite privacy concerns. The combined weight of social connections, learning costs, convenience loss, and reduced functionality often outweigh the perceived privacy benefits. While alternatives like Mastodon exist, the social capital lost in switching from Twitter/X can be too high for many users to justify the change.

Just as Annie's formula shows us that (REWARD - COST) must exceed (VALUE - PAIN) for change to happen, we need to remember that the everyday story of the Fediverse isn't written in mathematical symbols or technical specifications. It's written in the connections we make, the communities we build, and the stories we share. To build on Annie's argument, let's focus on making that story so compelling that the reward of joining clearly outweighs the comfort of staying put. After all, the best literature isn't about analysing the grammar - it's about the magic that happens when people connect through words.