Niger

🇳🇪 The best outcome in Niger would be for the democratic government to be restored. But I'm afraid that if the USA or France uses military force to restore constitutional order it will be perceived as neocolonialist and it will generate strong anti-American, anti-French and anti-Western sentiment among the junta supporters. The junta supporters may not be the majority of the civilian population, but they are not an insignificant group. It appears to include all of the Niger military, including military personnel that worked with the USA and France, and a very large minority of civilians in the capital. If we intervene, we will risk turning the Niger military into an anti-Western, anti-American and anti-French militia, essentially a new group that our forces would have to combat in the region while attempting to complete their original counterterrorism operations.

If we do use military force to restore the government, how will we maintain constitutional order and prevent another coup? Knowing the Niger Presidential Guard is behind the coup and that the Niger military supports the coup, who will protect the president of Niger after order is restored? How will we continue to conduct our counterterrorism operations in Niger if we can no longer work with the Niger military and they likely become a new anti-Western militia in the region? Are we going to use American and European military forces to prop up the democratic government in Niger? That is neocolonialism.

There is a very clear democrat leader in Niger, who clearly wants to do the right thing for his country. But he does not appear to have the military's support, which he needs for the country to be a functioning democracy and nation. He does not appear to have strong civilian support either, at least in the capital. We can't force democracy on the country.

Ukraine is a very different story. Ukrainians want democracy. Ukraine has a strong democratic leader committed to making all of the reforms Ukrainians want. The military supports him. The civilians support him. Ukrainians want to be aligned with the USA and the EU. They are pro-American, pro-European, and pro-democracy, and they clearly want out of the Russian sphere of influence.

Niger, on the other hand, is a mixed bag. Many civilians are anti-French and they want to be aligned with Russia. Many civilians are also anti-democratic and want military rule. The military that we trained and worked with has flipped from pro-democratic to anti-democratic, and if we intervene they could also become anti-American and align with Russia.

I don't know how the intelligence community was so blindsided by this event. It was quite obvious even to amateurs that Russia has been heavily engaged in an influence campaign in the Sahel and that Niger was the next target. The intelligence community's short-sightedness has created a very serious problem for the USA, Europe, West Africa, and the Nigerien people. There are no easy answers to this problem.

It would be best for pro-democracy Nigeriens or other West Africans to restore the democratic government. West Africans need to know and trust that they have the power to defend and protect their own democracies, and that foreign powers are not interfering in their government affairs. I believe that is the only way to restore their faith in democracy.

xo