投资人 阅读者 观察者

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The best business to start is to figure out the join of:

  1. Something that will be very valuable in the future.
  2. Something most smart people do not think will be very valuable in the future.
  3. Something you have a real advantage doing.



A representative for Bacardi’s travel team said only 9% of people in China have a passport, and about 7,000 Chinese travelers take their first international flight every day.




by 《指定幸存者》S01E07


创投之神彼得•泰尔(Peter Thiel)就曾取笑过硅谷的玩家倾向于投资于自己喜欢的领域。




思考:最早看懂这种模式的投资人,应该会获得很不错的认知红利。Uber for X依然是巨大赛道的主题,但是下一个Uber在何处依然是个问题。


目前我国最具公信力的娱乐圈大奖应该就是— — 贪玩蓝月奖了



Who will buy the new iPod?

It doesn't take much scouring through Apple's marketing materials to understand who the new iPod Touch is for, the answer hits you in the face, it's for kids. It's a starter iPhone.

The crazy thing is that as Apple and Google's cloud services are getting more sand-boxed, it's becoming more and more likely that these first devices could determine what operating system a kid sticks with once they have more of a say in what smartphone they're getting. Where are their photos stored? What can they play the games they've already bought? At a certain point, will higher upfront costs for these entry-level devices hamper iOS growth further down the road?



My prediction is that there is a 70% chance bitcoin will crash and become worth $500 or less over the next couple of years, with a 30% chance it will trade at the current price or more. I could even see a small chance that it goes $100,000 in the next couple of years.

The bear case, which is my primary scenario is driven by the following factors:

  1. Replacement: Facebook was the ninth or tenth social network to hit scale, after MySpace, Friendster and dozens of other smaller projects. Google was the tenth search/directory site (depending which definition you're using), preceded by Lycos, Yahoo, GNN, Excite and Alta Vista. It follows that bitcoin will be replicated by better technology, and if that happens people will move their money too quickly to that platform -- just like you moved from MySpace and Lycos in a heartbeat when you experienced Facebook and Google.

  2. Regulation: Money is power, and I don’t see governments giving up their power. They are fine with watching this experiment play out, but they will ban unregistered cryptocurrencies before giving up their power, and anyone who says “but it can’t be stopped!” is super naive. Sure, BitTorrent or VPNs haven’t been stopped in places they are illegal, but you don’t see folks using it in the face of harsh penalties. China puts people in jail for VPNs.

  3. Energy: It’s only a matter of time before folks get really tired of bitcoin burning through energy at this pace. Sure, bitcoin might evolve to burn less, but it’s still a risk.

  4. Hacking: it’s amazing that bitcoin hasn’t been taken down by hackers, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be. I’m really impressed by its resiliency, but it’s still dangerous.


The end of mobile

The next fundamental trends in tech, today, are probably machine learning, crypto and regulation.



There are 4 types of wealth:

  1. Financial wealth (money)
  2. Social wealth (status)
  3. Time wealth (freedom)
  4. Physical wealth (health)

Be wary of jobs that lure you in with 1 and 2, but rob you of 3 and 4.

– @JamesClear

My blog


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