the turkey illusion
September 14, 2024•288 words
A turkey is fed for a thousand days by a butcher; every day confirms to its staff of analysts that butchers love turkeys “with increased statistical confidence.” The butcher will keep feeding the turkey until a few days before Thanksgiving. Then comes that day when it is really not a very good idea to be a turkey. So with the butcher surprising it, the turkey will have a revision of belief—right when its confidence in the statement that the butcher loves turkeys is maximal and “it is very quiet” and soothingly predictable in the life of the turkey. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb from Antifragile
The turkey illusion is a variation of Bertrand Russell's example of a chicken getting slaughtered by the man who fed it every day. There are many 'turkey' problems lingering about us in our daily experiences. Once you see the turkey problem, you start to spot them across many domains of your life. Understanding the turkey illusion helps make sense of things before you become the turkey.
The past often cannot predict the future. And sometimes we may interpret things the wrong way. The turkey had no reason to believe the man who fed it every day would kill it. But the man fed it every day specifically to get it to a size and age to slaughter it before Thanksgiving. Looking at situations from multiple angles helps mitigate the turkey illusion.
As humans we have blind spots for problems where the past is very predictable. We extrapolate and think 'tomorrow will be the same'. When in reality, is tomorrow Thanksgiving? If so, today will not be like yesterday if we are a turkey. We must do our best to not be a turkey.